Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,558$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(436 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,309.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,309.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $494$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(84.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{464.1}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 23.6)}}\) (asimptote \(464.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,518$ on 2020-05-09

Mauritius

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(122 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{334.5}{1 + 10^{-0.102 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(334.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.18 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.7}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 11.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2$ on 2020-05-09

Congo (Kinshasa)

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $937$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(49.6 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,936.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 124.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58,936.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(37.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $768$ on 2020-05-09

Morocco

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,910$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(450 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,540.6}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,540.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $186$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(44.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177.3}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 18.5)}}\) (asimptote \(177.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,263$ on 2020-05-09

Egypt

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,964$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(355 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,371.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 59.9)}}\) (asimptote \(19,371.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $514$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(49.3 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{625.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(625.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,448$ on 2020-05-09

Cameroon

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,274$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(253 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,924.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,924.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(6.56 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{307.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 49.6)}}\) (asimptote \(307.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $934$ on 2020-05-09

Tunisia

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,032$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(222 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,008.5}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 23.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,008.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(13 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42.2}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 16.1)}}\) (asimptote \(42.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $327$ on 2020-05-09

Gabon

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $661$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(6.3 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-09

Active

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $543$ on 2020-05-09

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Niger recovered 70%
Tunisia recovered 59%
Djibouti recovered 58%

Niger

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $815$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(271 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{733.6}{1 + 10^{-0.104 (t - 11.0)}}\) (asimptote \(733.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(6.67 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(64.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $153$ on 2020-05-09

Djibouti

Population $988,000$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,189$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(102 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,117.1}{1 + 10^{-0.130 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,117.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3$ on 2020-05-09

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $352$ on 2020-05-09